The TapeLatest from The Tape
France: The Street and The Deficit
Five hundred fifty thousand people in the street, a deficit of 5.1 percent of GDP, and a ten-year borrowing cost at its highest since 2002.
Read the pieceSix Times Bigger, While Growth Is Cheaper
Chip stocks are worth 6.4 times what they were the day ChatGPT launched. On the other side of the ledger, the price of a point of earnings growth has been falling all year, back to where it started.
Read the pieceCore inflation rose 0.3% in September against 0.2% expected, and the market threw the baby out with the bathwater.
Layoffs are near 50-year lows, hiring has stalled, and workers have stopped quitting.
Consumers say they feel miserable, yet spending keeps rising, and only one of those facts matters for earnings.
The Nasdaq 100 is at records, but most stocks are not participating, and two names explain three-quarters of the year's gain.
Mortgage rates froze the housing market without crashing it, leaving prices almost untouched.
Nearly all long-run stock market wealth was created between the closing bell and the next morning's open.
ResearchFrom the desk
The Weekend Spread
A personal take on markets, business, and ideas. The weekly letter is published every Saturday: a handful of reads worth your time, the week in numbers, and one clear take on each. No noise, no sponsors.
theweekendspread.comMacro Updates
Our macro letters, including the monthly Income Cascade letter: rates, currencies, credit and the forces moving markets, written as the data comes in.
The macro lettersThe Tape
What the market is actually doing, week to week: breadth, sentiment, housing, employment and the overnight tape.
Read the TapeThe Lab
One subject at a time, explained from the ground up: inflation, the history of financial crises, the memory cycle, art as an asset.
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The companies I own and why I own them, starting with Micron: the thesis, the price targets and the risks, in the open.
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