Latest LetterSeptember 2026
Monthly Macro Letter · 15 pages
The Tug of War
Earnings growth is pulling one way. The cost of money is pulling the other. September traces a market caught between resilient growth and a sharp rise in long-term yields. The letter examines the changing buyers of government debt, the pressure on the yen carry trade and the continuing scale of the AI investment cycle.
Open the September letter (PDF)ArchiveJune — August 2026
August 2026 · 16 pages
The Earnings Put
The market no longer counts on the Fed to protect asset prices. It counts on earnings. A close look at the bond market, rising global yields and why technology earnings remained the market’s central support.
Open the August letter (PDF)July 2026 · 9 pages
Dislocation, Not a Verdict
A violent Nasdaq unwind met stronger evidence from the AI and memory economy. Market turbulence, concentrated forced selling and the observable earnings and spending signals that separate dislocation from deterioration.
Open the July letter (PDF)June 2026 · 8 pages
A Rare Market Path
Unusual overnight gaps met a durable AI infrastructure cycle. A statistical review of June’s market path, the economics of AI infrastructure and the geopolitical channels connecting oil, inflation and yields.
Open the June letter (PDF)The letters are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.